Rubber Daily Price Kerala 04/01/2019
Rubber RSS4 Kottayam: 125.00
Rubber RSS5: 121.00
Rubber Loose: 115.00
Rubber Lot: 107.00 – 110.00
Rubber scrap: 85.50
Rubber Latex: 85.00
Field Latex: 123.00
Rubber ISNR 20: 115.50
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Recovery in rubber prices unlikely in 2019 due to unfavourable demand-supply fundamentals
Emerging economic trends, a strong dollar and crude oil outlook are also weighing negatively on the commodity
The world consumption of natural rubber (NR) is likely to slow down in 2019 on account of anticipated lower global economic growth, trade war concerns and geopolitical issues.
Global consumption is projected to increase at a slower rate of 4.2 per cent to 14.590 million tonnes (mt) in 2019 compared to the 5.2 per cent rate of growth preliminarily estimated for 2018, Jom Jacob, Senior Economist, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, told BusinessLine during his recent visit to Kottayam.
Consumption in China, which accounts for 40 per cent of world consumption, is anticipated to take a slow track by increasing only by 3.2 per cent to 5.85 mt in 2019, compared to the 5.3 per cent rate of growth preliminarily estimated for 2018 and the 7.5 per cent growth attained in 2017.
In India, Consumptionis likely to slow down to 4 per cent in 2019. As per preliminary estimates, India consumed 1.218 mt of NR during 2018, up 12.6 per cent from the previous year, largely driven by high demand from the heavy commercial vehicle tyre sector. The country accounted for about 9 per cent of global consumption in 2018.
Global output may rise
The world production of NR is likely to grow faster at 6.6 per cent to 14.844 mt in 2019 compared to the 4.3 per cent increase preliminarily estimated for 2018. While the overall average annual yield per hectare is expected to remain stagnant due to unfavourable rubber prices and climatic stress, there would be a considerable expansion of the mature area, in varying degrees across countries.
Enthused by the unprecedented peak in rubber prices during the 2010-12 period, farmers had planted rubber trees extensively seven years ago. A part of that is expected to be opened for tapping in 2019. The expansion of area would be more pronounced in Thailand where around 200,000 hectares are expected to be added in 2019.
While a substantial expansion of mature area is expected in Cote d’Ivoire, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Brazil, only a moderate scale of expansion is expected in Indonesia, Vietnam, China, Malaysia and India. The mature area in India is anticipated to expand by 26,000 hectares in 2019.
Production in Thailand is likely to increase by 6.6 per cent to 5.135 mt this year as against the 8.8-per cent increase posted in 2018, as per preliminary estimates.