Uncategorized

July 30, 2025
Rubber India

Overview
Today, Japanese rubber futures have increased due to positive sentiments surrounding U.S.-China trade talks and a recovery in global automobile sales. However, high inventory levels are putting a cap on gains in the market.

Market Prices

Osaka Exchange (OSE):

January delivery rubber contract rose by 0.6 yen (0.19%) to 322.5 yen ($2.18) per kg.

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE):

September delivery rubber contract increased by 55 yuan (0.37%) to 15,030 yuan ($2,094.72) per metric ton.

September butadiene rubber contract remained unchanged at 11,855 yuan ($1,652.22) per metric ton.

Singapore Exchange (SICOM):

August delivery contract fell by 1% to 170.2 U.S. cents per kg.

Trade Talks and Tariff Updates
Recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials resulted in a mutual agreement to extend their 90-day tariff truce. This follows a similar agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, which has set tariffs at 15% on most goods—half of what was initially threatened.

Automobile Sales
Global automobile sales have shown a significant growth of 5% in the first half of 2025, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in June. This uptick could positively influence rubber demand, as increased vehicle production typically requires more rubber for tires.

Inventory Levels
Despite the rise in automobile sales, high inventory levels are a concern. As of July 27, total inventory in the Qingdao area reached 640,400 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (0.91%) from the previous period. This excess stock may pressure rubber prices in the near term.

Industry Insights
Factories in Thailand are currently hesitant to purchase more rubber due to adequate production stock and uncertainty surrounding upcoming U.S. tariffs, which are set to take effect on August 1.

Investors are closely monitoring U.S. Federal Reserve policy decisions and upcoming Chinese PMI data, which could impact market dynamics.

Company News
Nissan, a major Japanese automaker, announced plans to stop production at its Civac plant in Mexico by March 2026 as part of a global restructuring effort. This change will reduce Nissan’s global production capacity from 3.5 million vehicles to 2.5 million, decreasing the number of manufacturing sites from 17 to 10. This decision may further influence rubber demand as vehicle manufacturing adjusts.

Conclusion
In summary, while optimism surrounding trade talks and automobile sales is helping to boost rubber futures, the high levels of inventory are a significant factor keeping prices in check. Market participants should stay alert to economic indicators and industry developments that could affect rubber demand and pricing trends moving forward.

July 23, 2025
Rubber India

Overview
The natural rubber market saw positive movements today, largely driven by a new trade deal between the U.S. and Japan. This agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese automobile exports, boosting market sentiment.

Price Movements

Osaka Exchange (OSE):

December rubber futures rose by 0.4 yen (0.12%), reaching 332.3 yen ($2.26) per kg.

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE):

September rubber futures declined by 50 yuan (0.33%), settling at 14,980 yuan ($2,088.97) per metric ton.

August butadiene rubber futures increased by 5 yuan (0.04%), now at 12,030 yuan ($1,677.59) per metric ton.

Singapore Exchange (SICOM):

August rubber futures traded at 170.2 U.S. cents per kg, down by 0.6%.

Trade Deal Impact

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that reduces tariffs on Japanese automobile exports from 25% to 15%. This is expected to enhance automobile sales, which can drive up the demand for rubber in tire manufacturing.

Market Sentiment
The Nikkei index in Japan surged by 2.6%, with significant gains in the stocks of automakers, reflecting investor confidence stemming from the trade deal.

Supply Factors
In Thailand, the meteorological agency has warned of heavy rains from July 22-24, which could potentially cause flash floods. However, it is anticipated that these weather issues will be short-lived and will not significantly disrupt the overall rubber supply.

Factories in Thailand report sufficient stockpiles and are awaiting international purchase orders, reducing immediate concerns over supply shortages.

Global Context
The natural rubber market is also influenced by oil prices, as natural rubber competes with synthetic rubber, which is derived from crude oil. Today, oil prices steadied after recent declines, further supporting the natural rubber market.

Conclusion
The natural rubber market is experiencing a positive outlook today, fueled by the U.S.-Japan trade agreement and supportive supply conditions. Investors are optimistic, particularly in the automotive sector, which directly impacts rubber demand for tire production.

(July 14 – July 18, 2025)

Rubber India

The global rubber futures market exhibited an upward trend this week, with significant gains across major exchanges. This movement was primarily driven by fresh speculative buying, short covering, and adverse weather conditions impacting key rubber-producing regions.

Key Market Indicators

Price Movements:

OSE Rubber: Increased by 3.7%.
SHFE Rubber: Rose 3.2%.
INE Rubber: Increased by 2.6%.
SICOM Rubber: Up by 2.1%.

Market Drivers

Weather Conditions:

Tropical Storm Wipha has significantly impacted rubber production in Thailand, Vietnam, and southern China, with forecasts indicating continued heavy rainfall from July 19 to 24. This disruption is likely to limit supply, supporting price increases.

Demand Dynamics:

China’s Vehicle Sales: Total vehicle sales surged by 218,145 units or 8.1% month-over-month in June, reaching 2,904,482 units. This increase in sales is expected to drive demand for natural rubber, particularly in tire manufacturing.

Crude Oil Prices:

Stable crude oil prices, closing at USD 67.34 per barrel, have provided a supportive backdrop for rubber prices, as rubber is often linked to oil prices due to its use in synthetic rubber production.

Market Sentiment

Improvement in Market Sentiment: The recent price breakout above key resistance levels has improved sentiment, with traders showing increased interest.

Profit-Taking Risk: The overbought status may lead to short-term corrections, especially if economic data disappoints.

Forecast for the Coming Week

Expected Price Range

Trading Range: Anticipated prices for the week are projected between 320.0 and 345.0.

Factors to Monitor
Weather Developments: Continued adverse weather could exacerbate supply constraints, impacting prices further.

Economic Indicators:
China: Monitor for any updates on vehicle sales and manufacturing PMI, which could influence demand forecasts.

U.S. Economic Data: Pay attention to inflation reports and employment data that may affect market sentiment.

Geopolitical Factors:
Watch for any changes in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly regarding tariffs that could impact rubber imports and exports.

Conclusion
The rubber market is positioned for potential gains driven by strong demand and supply disruptions due to weather conditions. However, traders should remain vigilant about market corrections and external economic factors that could affect overall stability. Continued monitoring of both domestic and global economic indicators will be crucial in navigating the upcoming week’s trading landscape.

July 4, 2025
Rubber India

Overview
Today, Japanese rubber futures continued their upward trend, marking the third consecutive week of gains. The increase is attributed to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, the world’s largest rubber producer, which have limited production. However, sluggish demand and high inventories in China are restricting further price increases.

Market Highlights

Japanese Rubber Futures:

The December rubber contract on the Osaka Exchange (OSE) rose by 2.4 yen, or 0.77%, reaching 312.9 yen ($2.16) per kg.

This week, the contract has shown an overall increase of nearly 1%.

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE):

The September rubber contract fell by 5 yuan, or 0.04%, settling at 14,050 yuan ($1,960.92) per metric ton.

The August butadiene rubber contract also saw a slight decline, dropping 20 yuan, or 0.18%, to 11,250 yuan ($1,570.13) per ton.

Singapore Exchange (SICOM):
The front-month rubber contract for August delivery last traded at 164.7 U.S. cents per kg, reflecting a modest increase of 0.5%.

Weather Impact
The Thai meteorological agency has issued warnings of heavy rains from July 3-6, which may lead to flash floods. While these weather conditions could support rubber prices by limiting supply, they also coincide with low demand, particularly from China.

Demand Concerns
Farah Miller, founder of Helixtap Technologies, noted that despite potential weather-related price support, the critical issue remains low demand. High inventories at Chinese ports indicate stagnant consumption and an increase in supply, which negatively affects market sentiment.

Future Outlook
As the rainy season in major Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries comes to a close, an increase in rubber supply is anticipated. This could further influence prices, especially if demand does not improve.

Additional Market Information
The dollar slipped by 0.2% against the yen, trading at 144.69 yen. A stronger yen makes yen-denominated assets less attractive to international buyers.

The Nikkei index in Japan rose by 0.11%, reaching a peak earlier in the session.

Conclusion
The natural rubber market is currently influenced by a mix of supply constraints due to weather conditions and persistent demand issues. Traders and stakeholders should monitor these factors closely as they navigate this complex market landscape.

June 27, 2025
Rubber India

Overview
Today, Japanese rubber futures are on track for a weekly gain, largely driven by rising oil prices and a strong performance in the Nikkei index. This positive momentum is helping to offset concerns about potential supply increases from Thailand, a major rubber producer.

Market Highlights

Japanese Rubber Futures
Osaka Exchange: The December delivery rubber contract rose by 5 yen, or 1.66%, closing at 306.7 yen ($2.13) per kg.
Weekly Gain: The contract has increased by 3.76% this week.

Shanghai Futures
September Delivery: The rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed by 220 yuan, or 1.58%, reaching 14,105 yuan ($1,966.84) per metric ton.

Butadiene Rubber: The July butadiene rubber contract also saw a rise of 155 yuan, or 1.4%, to 11,245 yuan per metric ton.

Singapore Exchange
The front-month rubber contract for July delivery last traded at 160.8 U.S. cents per kg, down by 1.3%.

Influencing Factors

Oil Prices
Oil prices have increased, driven by higher fuel demand in the U.S., despite easing concerns over supply risks in the Middle East.
Natural rubber prices are influenced by oil prices since rubber competes with synthetic alternatives made from crude oil.

Market Sentiment
The Nikkei index rose by 1.5% on Thursday, surpassing the 40,000 mark for the first time since January 27, boosting market confidence.

Supply Concerns
There are concerns about increased supply from Thailand, where heavy rains and floods were forecasted from June 24-27.

Chinese factories are planning to directly purchase 300 tons of rubber from Thai farmers, which will benefit from a tariff reduction from 20% to zero.

Demand Projections
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production is expected to grow modestly by 0.5% in 2025 compared to 2024.

Demand for natural rubber is projected to increase at a rate of 1.3% in 2025.

Conclusion
The natural rubber market is experiencing positive momentum due to rising oil prices and a strong stock market performance. Supply concerns from Thailand and the impact of weather conditions could influence future market trends. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic with modest growth expected in both production and demand for natural rubber in 2025